DET @ MIN — LOSS
ATS: MIN · 2026-09-02
MLB Predictions
AI MLB Predictions
Model-driven MLB reads — moneyline, run line, and totals — anchored by starting pitching, bullpens, park, and weather.
The Edge projects every MLB game from the starting pitcher, bullpen strength, park factors, weather, and lineup context, refreshed against live odds throughout the day. Starting pitching is the heaviest input — a late scratch can move the whole projection — and totals are modeled for baseball’s low-scoring, event-driven structure.
The engine reads MLB across moneyline, run line, and over/under totals. Over/unders use a Poisson model (convolution), which fits baseball’s low-frequency scoring where variance tracks the mean. When a projection doesn’t clear the sport’s confidence threshold, it returns PASS — no forced action on a fair line.
What the model weighs
The Edge’s MLB model weighs starting pitching first — ERA and FIP blends for the confirmed starter — then bullpen quality and recent workload, park factors and weather including wind and temperature, lineup construction and platoon splits, team form against the run line, and betting-market splits. Baseball scores in low-frequency events where variance tracks the mean, so run totals are modelled with Poisson convolution rather than a normal distribution. When a projection does not clear the confidence threshold for a market, the engine returns a PASS rather than forcing action on a fair line.
Starting pitcher
ERA/FIP blends and recent starts are the single largest driver of the projection.
Bullpen strength
Relief depth and recent workload shape late-game expectations.
Park factors
Each ballpark’s run environment adjusts the totals projection.
Weather
Wind and temperature meaningfully change expected scoring outdoors.
Lineups & splits
Handedness matchups and lineup construction.
Travel & rest
Road trips and schedule density.
Coverage
MLB is live now during the season. Picks update through the day as pitchers are confirmed and lineups post. For the full methodology behind every projection, see how the MLB model works.
Recently graded MLB edge picks
Logged when posted, graded when final — see the verified MLB track record.
CIN @ CHC — WIN
O/U: Over · 2026-08-30
CHC @ ARI — LOSS
O/U: Over · 2026-08-26
CHC @ ARI — WIN
O/U: Over · 2026-08-25
CHC @ ARI — LOSS
O/U: Over · 2026-08-24
STL @ CIN — WIN
ATS: STL · 2026-08-19
FAQ
What matters most in an MLB projection?
The starting pitcher. ERA/FIP blends and recent starts are the heaviest input, followed by bullpen strength, park factors, and weather. A confirmed-starter change can move the entire projection.
Does weather really change the picks?
Yes — for outdoor games, wind and temperature meaningfully shift expected scoring, so they feed directly into the totals projection.
Which markets are covered?
Moneyline, run line, and over/under totals, each graded independently.
See the MLB slate
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