BAL @ DET — LOSS
ATS: DET · 2026-07-27
MLB Predictions
AI MLB Predictions
Model-driven MLB reads — moneyline, run line, and totals — anchored by starting pitching, bullpens, park, and weather.
Sandman Edge projects every MLB game from the starting pitcher, bullpen strength, park factors, weather, and lineup context, refreshed against live odds throughout the day. Starting pitching is the heaviest input — a late scratch can move the whole projection — and totals are modeled for baseball’s low-scoring, event-driven structure.
The engine reads MLB across moneyline, run line, and over/under totals. Over/unders use a Poisson model (convolution), which fits baseball’s low-frequency scoring where variance tracks the mean. When a projection doesn’t clear the sport’s confidence threshold, it returns PASS — no forced action on a fair line.
What the model weighs
Starting pitcher
ERA/FIP blends and recent starts are the single largest driver of the projection.
Bullpen strength
Relief depth and recent workload shape late-game expectations.
Park factors
Each ballpark’s run environment adjusts the totals projection.
Weather
Wind and temperature meaningfully change expected scoring outdoors.
Lineups & splits
Handedness matchups and lineup construction.
Travel & rest
Road trips and schedule density.
Coverage
MLB is live now during the season. Picks update through the day as pitchers are confirmed and lineups post. For the full methodology behind every projection, see how the engine works.
Recently graded MLB edge picks
Logged when posted, graded when final — see the full verified track record.
LAA @ SF — WIN
ATS: SF · 2026-07-26
TOR @ BOS — LOSS
ATS: BOS · 2026-07-25
ARI @ WSH — LOSS
O/U: Over · 2026-07-24
CHW @ TEX — LOSS
ATS: CHW · 2026-07-21
ATH @ ARI — WIN
ML: ARI · 2026-07-21
FAQ
What matters most in an MLB projection?
The starting pitcher. ERA/FIP blends and recent starts are the heaviest input, followed by bullpen strength, park factors, and weather. A confirmed-starter change can move the entire projection.
Does weather really change the picks?
Yes — for outdoor games, wind and temperature meaningfully shift expected scoring, so they feed directly into the totals projection.
Which markets are covered?
Moneyline, run line, and over/under totals, each graded independently.
See the MLB slate
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