Soccer Predictions

AI Soccer Predictions — EPL & MLS

Three-way match projections for the Premier League and MLS — home, draw, away — plus over/under 2.5 goals.

Soccer breaks the two-outcome mold of American sports, so the engine models it natively as a three-way market. Each club carries an Elo-style rating updated match by match, goals are projected with a Poisson model driven by each side’s scoring and concession rates, and the draw is modeled explicitly — with its own probability curve that peaks when two sides are evenly matched — rather than treated as whatever probability is left over. Those probabilities are then compared against the devigged three-way market to find value.

The engine reads soccer across three-way moneyline (home / draw / away) and over/under 2.5 goals. Goal totals use a Poisson model fed by each side’s attacking and defensive rates — the right shape for soccer’s low-frequency scoring. When a projection doesn’t clear the sport’s confidence threshold, it returns PASS — no forced action on a fair line.

What the model weighs

Elo team ratings

Ratings updated after every match, with wins and losses moving them more than draws.

Explicit draw model

Draw probability rises as two sides’ ratings converge — never a leftover residual.

Attack vs defense rates

Goals scored and conceded drive each side’s projected goal output.

League-calibrated home edge

Home advantage is tuned per league — EPL and MLS are weighted differently.

Recent form

How each club is trending against its rating baseline.

Market comparison

Model probabilities measured against the devigged three-way match odds.

Coverage

MLS is covered through its season, and Premier League picks flow once the EPL season kicks off in August. Match projections update as odds refresh and lock at kickoff. For the full methodology behind every projection, see how the engine works.

FAQ

Why does the model treat the draw as its own outcome?

Because collapsing soccer into a two-outcome bet breaks calibration. Roughly a quarter of evenly-matched fixtures end level, so the engine gives the draw its own probability model that peaks when two sides’ ratings converge, and prices home and away around it.

Which leagues are covered?

The English Premier League and Major League Soccer, run through the same soccer engine with league-specific calibration for home advantage and rating movement.

Are Asian handicaps or spreads covered?

Not yet. Current markets are the three-way moneyline (home / draw / away) and over/under 2.5 goals, each graded independently.

See the Soccer slate

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